Revising my prediction about the election?

In what became one of my most unpopular posts ever, I predicted back in September that President Obama would win reelection on November 6. The president had a comfortable lead in the polls then, and I didn’t see any likely scenarios that would allow Governor Romney to catch up to him.

Well, that was then, and this is now. A lot has changed since I made that prediction, and the race has tightened up considerably. My initial prognostication had one caveat. I said that Governor Romney had one more chance to sway voters his way, and that last chance was the debates. I said that he would have to “dazzle voters in the first debate” if he were to stay alive in this race. I didn’t think that he could do that, but to my great surprise he did. And the race hasn’t been the same since. Romney has been enjoying a slight lead in national polls, and he has narrowed the President’s lead in critical swing states.

With all of that in view, some have wondered whether or not I would revise my earlier prediction. The short answer is no, not really. Here are the cold, hard realities. The national polls are interesting, but the only thing that really matters at this point is the Electoral College. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. All things considered, it is very unlikely that Governor Romney will reach 270 electoral votes without winning Ohio. With only two recent exceptions, the polls in Ohio have consistently favored President Obama. Right now, the Real Clear Politics polling average has President Obama leading in Ohio by 2.3 percentage points.

What does this mean? It means that after all is said and done—after all the gains Governor Romney has made since the first debate—Romney still trails in Ohio. Not only that, Romney is trailing in the early voting in Ohio as well. President Obama will go into Election Day with national unemployment below 8 percent and with Ohio’s employment outperforming the national average. It will be close, but at this point it looks like the President is poised to win Ohio, which means that he will also win the election.

It will be closer than what I predicted in September, but it will nevertheless be a victory for the incumbent.


P.S. If you don’t like this prediction, then you need to cast your vote on Tuesday. Especially if you live in a swing state like Ohio, turnout could turn this election and this prediction on its head. Go vote.

P.P.S. Please keep in mind that this is my analysis, not my advocacy. This is not what I want to happen, just what I think will happen.

P.P.P.S. It’s important to point out that I’m no political professional. I’m just an amateur who follows these things pretty closely. So take my prognostication with the requisite grain of salt.

P.P.P.P.S. I have predicted the LSU Tigers to lose to Alabama on Saturday and Romney to lose to Obama on Tuesday. For what it’s worth, I would love to eat crow concerning both of these predictions.

P.P.P.P.P.S. I’m aware of the disputes over the polls. I’m also aware of Karl Rove’s prediction in WSJ this week. I’m not buying any of it. There’s no one poll that I’m looking at. I’m talking about trends across all the state polls in Ohio, and they consistently favor Obama.


  • bibchr

    (Overheard in first-century Palestine)

    Father: And be sure to invite Jesus to the wedding feast.
    Mother: Oh… do you think that’s a good idea?
    Father: Why not? He brightens any party He goes to.
    Mother: I know, I know. I’m just afraid He’ll bring that Denny Burke friend of His.
    Father: Oh. I hadn’t thought of that.

  • Dan Bruce

    I have already voted by absentee ballot, and I voted to re-elect President Obama. He isn’t perfect, but he is my Christian brother. I just could not bring myself to vote for a cultist whose main guidance comes from the Book of Mormon and who looks for spiritual leadership from a man calling himself the Prophet of God (sitting in a Temple in Salt Lake City and claiming authority equal to Scripture). That’s way to close to what I read in Revelation.

    • Saint and Sinner

      “I just could not bring myself to vote for a cultist…”

      So instead, you’re going to vote for a theological liberal who believes in abortion on demand.

    • David Thomas

      I’m curious, Dan, how you handle passages like, “Not all who call me ‘Lord, Lord’ will enter the Kingdom of Heaven, but only those who do the will of my Father which is in Heaven,” and “By their fruit you shall know them,” and “Satan and his servants masquerade as angels of light”?

      One of the MAJOR themes and warnings in the New Testament (and the Old, for that matter) is that many will come claiming to be of God, painting themselves as from God, and benefitting from the fact that many think they are of God–but in fact they are counterfeits and carrying out a mission not only NOT of God, but diametrically opposed to God. Jesus went on at length about this and warned us to discern carefully, examining the fruit of said persons.

      As Denny has eloquently stated elsewhere, our current president is a radical on abortion, a practice which stands in opposition to 2,000 years of church history. He is a radical on homosexual permissiveness, which is a practice that denies the very image of God in humanity. And he seeks to impose and enforce these practices–by law–upon all American citizens, even in violation of their conscience. I will leave alone a litany of other practices and policies that are also of questionable “Christian” value and conviction. To simply wave off these gross violations of Christian faith and practice as “imperfections” is, I think, most dangerous rhetoric.

      I get your hesitation about Romney and your pained conscience about voting for him. That’s your call and I respect it. But to call Obama your “Christian brother” simply because he calls himself that…wow. And I guess we should have supported “Christian” Germany against Atheist Communists Russia in World War 2….

      • danielatlantaDan Bruce

        I have to take Obama at his word, that he relies for his salvation on the redemptive work of Jesus who shed his blood on the cross. I have heard him say that with my own ears, and also that he daily reads his Bible (and nothing more) to find God’s revelation and guidance. I don’t believe God wants me to judge his salvation any further than that, and certainly not by evaluating his secular political positions. On the other hand, I see Romney as one coming in the guise of God that you so correctly point out is predicted in the Bible. I know that Romney puts his trust in heretical writings and is ordained into an un-Scriptural hierarchy headed by a “Prophet of God” sitting in what is called the “Temple of God”. For me, that smacks of Revelation.

        • David Thomas

          No, Daniel, that’s the point: You DON’T take people at their word. YOU DON’T KNOW OBAMA. You take him at his ACTIONS. And it’s all wrong to speak of “judging his salvation”–salvation is what God does. The question is, what does Mr. Obama do?

          Because of Obama’s policies, millions of children will die. As a direct result. And you voted for him.

          The problem here is many evangelicals are more versed in Martin’s /Kingdom of the Cults/ than they are in secular thought. The militant secularism to which Obama subscribes is itself a religion–the spirit of Antichrist. That, friend, is the real spirit of Revelation.

          • James Stanton

            I feel like I need to challenge you on this claim that because of Obama’s policies millions of children will die. I think you would be right if you were to say that Obama’s stated beliefs approve of the deaths of millions, or many more than one, due to abortions. But I don’t think you can back up a claim that any of his policies will directly cause millions of additional children, over and above that would die as a consequence of laws on the books for 40 years.

            Forgive me but I don’t think you need to descend into hyperbole to make the point that abortion is evil and he supports it and many children will die as a result of him not being a politician willing to sign a repeal of Roe V Wade if conditions were to arise that would lead to such a bill being passed in Congress.

            • David Thomas

              If you see this as hyperbole, then check the facts. America aborts nearly over 3,700 children PER DAY, nearly 1.4 million per year. A president who appoints supreme court justices who perpetuate that godless, murderous law, and through his HHS mandate demands that all insurance pay for abortions certainly promotes and furthers abortion. Even if we say Obama increases abortion by just 5% (an extremely conservative figure given his aggressiveness on the issue), over against a pro-lifer president that could have reduced abortion by the same, that’s a 10% swing–or 140,000 abortions a year in America. Over four years, that’s 560,000 abortions, and if Mr. Bruce’s candidate wins, over a million human lives snuffed out in his 8 year term, even considering the “laws already on the books.” Of course, the trend is established and the next president, even if he isn’t the murderous monster Obama is, will be hard pressed to undo the trend. All this is footwork, to be sure; the Judeo-Christian worldview says to save a life is to save all life, and to kill once is to show disdain for all.

              Tell me, James, how many people like you in 1973 would have believed that a generation later America would have slaughtered the equivalent of the ENTIRE POPULATIONS of Canada, Alaska, Washington State, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin? It’s like an new ice age of death. How many would have “tut-tutted” such predictive rhetoric as extreme? Would they have called that hyperbole, James? I challenge YOU to say they wouldn’t have. Did you know these figures? Do you agonize over them? If you answer no to either question, you have major issues. MAJOR issues.

              Decisions made by the fathers are visited upon the children; we are the gatekeepers of the future, and Obama’s decisions about abortion, far sooner than you dare to think, certainly will cost millions of lives. Abortion is murder, and those who get philosophical or relative about it have blood on their hands. Period.

              My statement wasn’t hyperbole, and I stand by it.

              • Joy Felix

                Romney has said he won’t “legislate” abortion away. He was also the governor that opened up the door for gay marriage to begin with. Not because he had to either, he did it by choice. Actions as you said speak louder than words. Romneycare in MA covers abortions.

                Obama has comprised over and over with Republicans on this to get other things that he seems to care about more passed. If you are voting just on record, and “actions” you would be better off with Obama.

                • David Thomas

                  J. Felix, you are obviously a troll. It is also obvious you couldn’t care less about aborted children.

                  Romney and his running mate Ryan have made clear they will work to repeal both Obamacare and the Nazi-like HHS mandate (I say “Nazi-like” because so many former sufferers of Nazi and Communist regimes have spoken up, warning that this is the begnning of what they experienced there). Denny has done an excellent job of pointing out that Obama takes previous presidents’ /inaction/ or /partial action/ on Roe v Wade to another level entirely by being the most activist /pro-abortion/ president in history. The guy doesn’t even want live born children who have survived abortions, or even the unborn children in his own daughters’ wombs, to live.

                  No one is “better off” on this issue with Obama. No one.

                    • David Thomas

                      I have my eyes open about Romney, and the electorate that brings him to office will hold him to his word–just like the electorate that brought Obama to office is holding him to his.

                      Do you have your eyes open about Obama? When you say “better off” in connection with a man who has cornered scores of Christian organizations (Catholic and Protestant) into suing him over his HHS mandate, it seems your eyes are wide shut.

                      Explain to me, Joy, what would make my alma mater shift so dramatically from draping an honorary law degree around Obama’s neck in 2009 to suing him in 2012? Notre Dame does eat crow willingly. Something forced their hand. So please don’t speak to me about how “flexible” Obama is with Christians. He’s an oppressor.

                    • Joy Felix

                      I don’t know. My own thoughts are from personal experience. My Dad, a longtime (over 35 years) pastor – the revenue fell at the church he was at and they dropped his health insurance. Then he got sick. Bad timing I guess. But they lost pretty much everything. He’s terminally ill now and my mom works to pay for his medical bills which are still out of pocket. By what I had been taught, the church people or the denomination would help – neither happened. He’s terminally ill and we are counting down the months till the magically age of 65 when he can get onto Medicare. But they have already lost everything, house savings, retirement, its all gone. I was a conservative. I have never voted anything but Republican. But reading through the Obamacare initiative, I realized had it been in place, they would have had some protection. The doubt in that area expanded to other areas. I never would have dreamed I would have these views four years ago, but like it or not pain sometimes has that effect. I’m not a huge Obama fan. But I don’t want Obamacare overturned. I have no hang ups about contraception being a requirement, most of the studies I have read say it prevents abortion, so I don’t really understand what the problem actually is.

                      I was a conservative……conversations like this though – I’m realizing I can’t even discuss things in the places I used to without running into very unChristian attitudes. I almost think I should stop reading and hoping to find something here

                    • David Thomas

                      Joy, I am sorry for your personal experience. I am a minister of nearly 30 years and I have had brutal experiences (one recently) in that role, including as a local pastor–from Christians, not unbelievers. I know first hand that church people can be hard and difficult.

                      But at the same time, what you say is very difficult for me because you /appear/ the be allowing experience trump principle and even truth. Obama is doing more than permitting contraception (who doesn’t). He is /mandating/ that religious organizations pay for abortifacient medications–pills that induce abortion after conception has already occurred. Please explain to me how your father’s hard experience with church folk and my ill-treatment at the hands of similar people justifies that? And if you come on a website and make statements that can and do result in the violation fo religious liberties and ultimately in the death of the unborn, why would you complain and brand as “unChristian” remarks that are made to rebutt you?

                      I could go either way on national healthcare, to be honest with you. If we can afford it as a nation (another question), that’s fine with me. But I am fiercelt against paying for abortions, and I think contraception is a personal decision and should be paid for with personal funds.

                      Prayers for your father…

      • Dan Bruce

        This is the Living Prophet who reveals the will of God to Mitt Romney, the power behind the throne so to speak:

        “Thomas Spencer Monson (b. 1927) is an American religious leader and author, and the 16th and current President of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon Church). Monson is considered by adherents of the religion to be a prophet, seer, and revelator of God’s will on earth” … from Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_S._Monson). Here’s what the Mormon Chuurch says about its Living Prophet:

        “Throughout history, God has chosen prophets, such as Noah, Abraham, Moses, and others, to teach the gospel and direct His Church (Amos 3:7). It is no different today. We all need God’s guidance in a world that is sometimes confusing. Because God loves His children, He continues to send living prophets. Joseph Smith (1805–44) was the first prophet of our time. Thomas S. Monson is God’s chosen prophet today. Just as God led the Israelites out of slavery and to a better place through His prophet Moses, He leads His children today into happier, more peaceful lives when they choose to follow His living prophet” … from the official Mormon website (http://mormon.org/faq#faq/topic/prophets).

        That’s how I handle those verses, David, by opposing such unbiblical claims of authority, and I certainly don’t want such a “Living Prophet” and his client hanging out in the Oval Office.

        • David Thomas

          Dan, this is an epistemological issue. You are chasing conspiracy theories based on Hal Lindsey-like paperbacks on Revelation, and I am looking at what Obama said he would do, has done, and says he will do if re-elected. You are looking at the Mormon website, and I am looking at Jeremiah Wright’s sermons which Obama listened to for 20+ years. You are jumping at what /might/ happen, I am utterly grieved at what has /already/ happened.

          In short, I wonder where you have been these last four years. While you walk the corridors of Dispensational interpretations of the Apocalypse (a book I did my dissertation on, by the way), I shake at the blunt and unambiguous words of the Minor Prophets.

          Perhaps we can agree upon 2 Chronicles 7:14…

          • Dan Bruce

            No, David, I am being quite practical and real-time with my misgivings about Romney (not sure where you get the conspiracy theory stuff). I simply don’t want a cultist who, because of his faith in the Book of Mormon, answers to and heeds a man in Salt Lake City who claims to speak for God with the same authority as Moses and Jesus. I don’t want that man sitting in the Oval Office and making decisions for the nation based on such an un-Scriptural relationship. I don’t believe you can find anything in the Bible that approves of that arrangement, and there is plenty that warns against it.

            • David Thomas

              Dan, I have a relative who is pro-Palestinian on all things. Whenever there is a flare up in that region, here come the group emails deriding the IDF, calling Israel despotic, and generally painting the Palestinians as victims, i.e., people who “bite” only because they are in a corner. He makes some arguably good points. But what undermines his legitimacy is his willful ignorance and/or spin regarding Palestinian atrocities against Israelis, namely, suicide bombers, rockets into non-combatant areas, and hostage taking resulting in torture of captives and mangled corpses dumped on desolate roads–not to mention open declaration of their organizations’ /raison d’etre/ being the extermination of Israel.

              That’s pretty much how I see your posts. You have waxed eloquent about the complications of electing a Mormon president. But you have been extraordinarily shallow (either by willful ignorance or disingenuousness) regarding Barack Hussein Obama. In short, you have admirably explained why you won’t vote for Romney; you are woefully falling short in defending how you could possibly have voted for the nihilistic monster who is our sitting president.

              This man has assaulted religious freedoms in unprecedented ways, so severely, in fact, that he has unified Catholics and Evangelicals in lawsuits against his HHS mandate which requires that Christian organizations pay for abortions. He has championed abortion “rights” beyond what any other president has ever dared. And he has promoted the LGBT agenda to a level where the only logical next step is mandating that Christian organizations hire sodomites or be subject to anti-discrimination laws. Your statement? Obama is “imperfect.” Right. That’s like looking at a victim of Stalin’s purges and saying, “Well, all have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God…” And don’t even start on the “He says he’s a Christian” nonsense. Vladimir the Impaler, aka Dracula, was also a confessing “Christian.” Jesus tells us to judge a tree by its fruit, not its words.

              I don’t care that you don’t vote for Romney. But your arguments for having voted Obama are pathetically weak.

    • Ken Temple

      Dan Bruce – you are correct that Mitt Romney is a cultist, but President Barak Obama is not an orthodox Christian, and his own words admit to the fact – Denny wrote an article linked to an interview that a reporter did on “Obama’s Faith” – see below. (My article links to Denny’s which links to the report on his faith beliefs. Although Barak Obama claims to be a Christian, someone unwilling to call Jesus Lord and God in the flesh and who votes for abortion and infanticide (4 times) and proclaims “same sex marriage” as ok and good, – either you have not looked into his beliefs much or there is some serious lack of discernment.


      • Dan Bruce

        I have two meaninful choices for president, between an “imperfect” Christian and a “perfect” cultist. As a Bible-believing Christian, that makes the choice simple for me if I choose to vote.

    • Bill Tripp

      You are a deluded human being on the side of evil! I don’t know if your ignorance is willful or you haven’t educated yourself on the issues. You could easily ready Hugh Hewitt’s book, “The Brief Against Obama” or listen to his 100 reasons not to vote for Obama available on his blog and know why this country needs Mitt Romney for President. You are not a born again Christian. No born again Christian with the Spirit of God inside can vote for a modern democrat. Barack Obama is not a Christian or a Muslim. His religion is the state. You make me truly sad. It truly saddens me to know that with the amazing information available to you that you side with evil.

      • Dwight McKissic

        “No born again Christian with the Spirit of God inside can vote for a modern democrat.” Do you really mean that? You effectively just categorized the vast majority of minority Christians as not born again and without the Spirit of God.

    • Bill Tripp


      Dan Bruce, educate yourself. I would highly encourage you to take a sabbatical and check your own heart and walk with God. I notice you have a ministry. You are in serious need of taking a break and examining your heart. You are deceived and need help. I don’t want you to lead others astray. Your siding with obvious evil is the first indicator that your heart needs serious spiritual surgery.

      • Dan Bruce

        Maybe I can drive out to Salt Lake City and see what words of wisdom the Prophet has to hand down from God to me, eh? Or maybe I can avoid the drive and just read the Book of Mormon for guidance. If it’s good enough for the nation’s leader, it should be good enough for me, right?

  • Joe S

    Just curious (since I am not a polling expert either): rasmussen claims that a) they have been more accurate than traditional media last two presidentlal elections and b) romney is ahead in Ohio. Do you give any credence to their view?

    • Denny Burk

      I would if they weren’t such an outlier at this point. All the other 20+ polls are pointing in the other direction. It’s not any one poll that shapes my view. It’s the trend in all the polls.

      • Bill Tripp

        Will all due respect to you Denny, you should stay away from political predictions because you will live to regret this blog post. Maybe you should listen to Michael Medved and Hugh Hewitt on more regular basis. Obama is going to lose. History is not on his side. The indy vote is with Mitt, Obama has lost supporters and not gained supporters. Conservatives are energized! Maybe you should have read, “Why History and Logic make President Obama a likely Loser” by Micahel Medved. Obama will lose! Romney 53% to Obama 47%! Bank on it!

      • Barry Woodward

        I keep hearing that many of the polls, especially in Ohio, are using a really unrealistic turnout model that assumes that the enthusiasm on the Democrat side will actually be even higher than in 2008, which I think is just a really wrong read of the times. I think it’s wishful thinking on their side. I feel pretty good about Romney’s chances.

  • Ken Temple

    Dick Morris is predicting a big win for Romney, because most of the polls are using assumptions based on 2008 turnout – the turnout was very high for Obama and the country was in “Bush and War fatigue” mode.

    Morris is arguing that many are disillusioned with Obama that voted for him before and many will stay home and many others are going to vote for Romney, as excitement and concern is higher among conservatives and independents.

    He has been saying this on O’Reilly, Hannity, and Greta Van Susteren shows on Fox New recently. Last night, Greta said to Morris, “You are either really right or really wrong.”

    Romney and Ryan need to talk about Benghazi a lot now, as the tragedy of Sandy is making Obama look positive for people looking to government to help them out of their troubles.

    • Tom Parker

      Dick Morris is 100% wrong. It all depends on how you define close, bit I’m predicting the election will not be close. We shall see.

  • mborofskyMark Borofsky

    Dr. Burk,

    Like you, I too have been making projections on the upcoming elections, and like you, I too hope that LSU beats Alabama (only to see KSU in first place).

    As one who is both a news junkie, political junkie and loves to discuss theology (albeit on not a grand of scale as your self) I am pretty astute to polls, politics and such. That is why I am letting you know that your prediction, looking at the Electoral college is wrong. Please allow me to explain why.

    Though you indicate that polls do not matter that much, you are right but they do matter a little. In the polls, the mistake being made is that the oversampling and under-sampling is bad. Virtually all of the polls, including Rasmussen and Gallup have been using the 2008 voter turnout model, which in now way will be replicated in 2012. Voter enthusiasm for democrats is more than 25% below that of 2008 and up over 25% for republicans. Second, because of this over and under sampling, the polls are terribly skewed towards democrats. For example, if Rasmussen calls 1,252 people to poll and of that 46% of those polled are democrats and 39% are republican and the remaining 15% are independents, then that is an over sampling of democrats by 8% and under sampling of independents by at least 20%.

    At the moment, Romney leads Obama by double digits with independents which is huge because that, along with the white vote is what helped carry Obama in 2008. The dynamics have drastically changed from 2008, meaning more men are voting for Romney, the gender gap has closed, Romney has picked up the independents and there is a large push by evangelical black pastors to encourage their congregations to not vote for Obama because of his views on gay marriage and abortion. finally, there has been little said about the evangelical vote of which over 15 million did not vote in the 2008 elections. They are fired up and will vote as they did in 1198 and 2004.

    What does all this mean for the electoral college? Well first, the two political science professors from the University of Colorado created a formula that looks at many tangibles by state, not by national position. They created this in 1980 and have hit every election correctly (on the Electoral Votes) since. This includes when third party candidates run. The in fact correctly predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote in 2000. They have predicted as recently as October 25, 2012 that Romney would win both the popular vote as well as the electoral vote. Their prediction? 330 Romney to 208 Obama.
    My prediction is that of the swing states, Romney will win, OH, CO, FL, NC, VA, WI, NV, and IA. I also think there is a great chance he will win PA and MI as that is now very close. The only caveat will be in the swing states, voter fraud. We have already seen that there are machine malfunctions in NC, NV and OH whereby Romney was selected and it posted Obama. Funny how that works, swing states, and switches only Romney’s name and not when someone votes for Obama. So, that is my prediction and I hope and pray I am correct. There is much more analysis I could provide to substantiate my theory here, but I have taken too much time as it is.

    On another note, please pray for our son Jon who is a graduate of Boyce College. he is submitting his resume to a church that is looking for a youth pastor and he really would like this church and position. God bless and let’s check back on November 7.

    God Bless

    Mark Borofsky

    • Jes W

      No offense, Denny…but I like Mark’s post better than yours. 🙂

      The one thing that we can’t dismiss in all of this is the sovereignty of God.
      He raises up kings and He tears down kings, according to His Word.

      We still need to be ON OUR FACES in prayer until the polls close on Tuesday.

      GOD CHANGED THE WHOLE OUTCOME FOR THE ISRAELITES in 24 hours in the book of Esther!

      I have felt like such a hypocrite asking God to show us mercy as a nation, because we clearly do not deserve any more of His mercy.

      Last week as I was praying over the election, it hit me…my prayers need to be for Israel.

      Romney will side with Israel because the Mormon doctrine teaches that they descend from one of the tribes. (I know there’s more to this story, but don’t recall it all right now..)

      So I started praying for Israel the way that Moses did. And I’ve also asked the Lord to consider mercy for the remnant of believers in the US who are truly following Him.

      Regardless, knowing that Israel would have an ally with the US…a TRUE ally, that was why I voted for Romney.

      I don’t believe that Obama is a Christian…not for a minute. The fruit of his life is completely contrary to God’s Word. We will know them by their fruit. His is evil.

      Now granted, all our righteousness is as filthy rags, too…so I’m not in the camp of people who are elevating Romney because Mormons use the Bible.

      At the root of their doctrine, good works still prevails over all else..and good works are rubbish…”flung dung” as the Apostle Paul said.

  • David Thomas

    Denny, I think the simple fact is that most predictions right now are not predictions at all–they are guesses…sort of like whether we think it will snow on Christmas Eve in Chicago.

    Your comparision to your wishes for the LSU v. Alabama game is instructive to a point: We often predict the outcome we loath to mitigate the disappointment if and when that outcome does in fact materialize, and also to heighten our relief if and when it does not (as a long suffering Irish fan, I know this phenomenon as well; I also hope with your for an LSU victory over Alabama this weekend 🙂

    There are some things we cannot know ahead of time, or even dare to predict. LIke trying to answer hidden questions of Scripture (e.g., Paul’s “thorn in the flesh” or the like), the best option sometimes is to say, “It cannot be known given what is before us right now.” So in this case. I have no desire to be contentious, but your posts (both of them) are next to meaningless regardless of the electoral outcome, just as various predictions by pundits–often themselves made to sway voters–are meaningless even if they “come true.” Around the time you made your first prediction, Scott Rasmussen (one of the most respected pollsters) also made a statement, and that was there was no knowing are predicting with any accuracy whatsoever what will happen. One might say, “I predict victory for Candidate X–unless of course the other guy clocks in him the debates, and, say, there’s a major foreign policy scandal, and, say, a natural disaster the week for the election.” Um, yeah…Incidentally, Rasmussen is basically back where he started–there’s no telling (even though Romney is up 4 points in swing state polls).

    I would also note that “averaging” the polls is faulty reasoning in the process of reaching a conclusion, because the methods of the different polls are incompatible with each other: Some weight their numbers assuming 2008 Democratic turnout and enthusiasm, while others use a more balanced approach of assuming likely voters. Those cannot be legitimately “averaged” (though many do since their results are numbers) any more than we can “average” the theological views of Ligon Duncan and N.T. Wright. In the end, only the election itself will prove which was more accurate. After the fact.

    When predictions are moot.

  • joerigney


    I’m with Mark B. Romney wins, walking away. I think Mark calls all the states rightly, and that even MN might be in play. The state polls are way overstating Democratic turnout and understating Republican enthusiasm (read “Tea Party”). They’re treating 2008 as if it was a massive voter realignment rather than the perfect storm for Obama. I’m thinking that it won’t be close enough for “irregularities” to switch the winner.

    I think Romney’s win could be substantial enough to pull some (R) Senators along with him (Akin in MO, Mourdock in IN, Allen in VA, Thompson in WI, Rehberg in MT).

    See you at ETS.

      • joerigney

        Tom, I don’t actually watch TV news. I’m just looking at poll analysis. I’ll just give a simple proposition: If the electorate is is 2-3 points more Democratic than it was in 2008, then Obama will win. (That’s what all of those state polls are showing). If the electorate is closer to 2010, then Romney wins, walking away.

  • Paula Bolyard (@pbolyard)

    Matt Martin….you are SO right about the Moneyball guys! Haha!

    I think Ohio is going for Romney. There has been a momentum shift here in the last few weeks. I went to a Romney rally in Canton last week and on a frigid, rainy Friday night, 8500 people waited for hours to see Romney and Ryan (and the Oak Ridge Boys!) I went from, “I guess I can vote for the guy” to “I will put up a Romney sign and make phone calls for him.” After a week of raunchy Obama campaign ads and his trash talking comments in Rolling Stone, Romney was like a breath of fresh air. He was presidential and gave an inspiring speech.

    Aside from that, the GOP/conservative ground game is unbelievable. I’m getting 6-8 phone calls a day from the Ohio Republican Party, the RNC, the NRA, Values Voters, Citizens for Community Values, Americans for Prosperity, Freedom Works…all kinds of groups. The RNC alone has made four times as many contacts in Ohio as the McCain campaign did. We live on a street with no sidewalks and long driveways. We have NEVER had anyone come to our door to campaign. This week, we had a Romney door-knocker show up to GOTV! They call any time Romney will be in the area. They call at least once a week to remind me about early voting. They are also tracking everyone who has requested an absentee ballot. They have an unprecedented ground game. And half the conservative groups in the country have ground forces here campaigning. I have a detailed article about the Ohio ground game on PJ Media if anyone is interested in the details.

    Another factor is that the GOP has added a significant number of voters in Ohio since 2008 (and the Dems have lost voters). If you’re a data head, read some of the articles in the news section at electioninsight.biz . He’s analyzed the voter registration and past voting records in Cuyahoga County and is predicting Romney will win Ohio by 12 points!

  • mborofskyMark Borofsky

    Mr. Bruce, I stated earlier that I am by confession a political junkie and news junkie. As a messianic Jew and one who dearly loves our Lord and Savior, I find it interesting that your forte is in biblical prophecy and you identify Obama as a Christian. With all due respect sir and speaking as one Christian to another, you have fallen for the very thing that is espoused in end times. Simply saying that one is a Christian is not enough. Paul told us that there would be wolves, and wolves there are, including Joel Osteen. If I read book after book about medicine and surgery, that does not necessarily make me a doctor. If I live in a garage, that does not make me a mechanic. Simply reading the bible or attending church does not make one a christian. Being a christian sir is a heart condition and a life change condition.

    I read an interview with Jeremiah Wright, the Black Liberation Theology of which Obama sat under for over 20 years. I am sorry that I do not have the link but ask that you trust me when I tell you that Wright, in the interview, said that Obama was struggling within himself as it related to his Islam upbringing and Christianity. Wright said “he coached Obama on how to speak christian and act christian to fit in” These are Wrights words not mine. It appears by the actions and comments of Obama, he learned how to speak the talk but sure not walk the walk.

    Far too often, we are told to adhere to scripture of “judge not lest you be judged”. Fair enough, but Paul also warned us and told us to look for fruit. As a fruit inspector focusing only on those who claim to be of the elect, I can emphatically attest that I see no sign of Christ-like fruit or any sign of godliness coming from Obama, therefore I question greatly the authenticity of his alleged salvation.

    On a final note, I apologize for some of the very direct and harsh comments in the previous post, it simply appears to me that you have been misguided and as I like to say, snookered. I am curious as to one thing if I may. I accept that Romney in his Mormon religion ascribes to a cult faith; given. But, he is pro-marriage (biblical), pro-life (biblical) self-reliant (biblical to a point). My question ot you is how you square voting for Obama who is diametrically opposed to all that God would call us as Christian to live by? Please let me know how you came to the conclusion to vote for Obama; aside from the fact that Romney follows a cult?

    • Dan Bruce

      Mark, it is interesting that you are a Messianic Jew and cannot see where I am coming from with respect to Obama and his faith and his actions as president. As you no doubt have seen, many Christians conflate the relationship of the United States with God to the relationship of ancient Israel with God, and many believe that the church has replaced Israel in the scheme of things, and just as many seem to believe that the U.S. government should be an extension of the church. In doing so, they seem to think that spiritual results can be achieved through the laws and government of the state, as God specified they be accomplished in ancient Israel. However, this goes against the example of Jesus during his first advent. Never once in his ministry did Jesus try to achieve spiritual ends by political means acting through the laws of the state. That is my example as a Christian. So, I don’t expect to work through the state to bring about a biblical society. I expect to do that by working through the church, which is what I think God intended. Obama is my secular leader, not my religious leader, and my expectations of him are limited to the secular arena. I take note that he is a Christian who professes faith in Jesus Christ and who reads his Bible and prays to the God of the Bible daily for guidance (I ahve heard him say all of this with my own ears), but I do not expect him to institute a theocracy in America. I have trust that God will lead him as president as he prayerfully seeks God’s guidance from the Scriptures (not other sources, such as the Book of Mormon), realizing that his positions on issues made from a secular political perspective may not always reflect my understanding of biblical teaching. As a citizen, I also believe in the separation of church and state. I don’t want the church trying to run the state, and I am glad that I live in a nation where my religious freedom to worship the God of my choice is guaranteed to be safe from interferrence by the state. Quite frankly, with respect to abortion and same-sex marriage (and I believe it significant that no directions about opposing or not opposing abortion or same-sex marriage as secular political issues are given in the Bible), after all is said and done I don’t think it matters what the state legislates. If abortion is outlawed, it will still happen. It was happening in the society in which Jesus grew up and ministered, and he did not mention abortion or direct that his followers get involved in trying to outlaw abortion from the secular society through political means. His priorities were elsewhere. Obama is following the law of the secular state with respect to abortion, as he is sworn to do. As president, he has not proposed any laws requiring more abortion as far as I know. As for his recent support for same-sex marriage (which is not necessarily the same as unbiblical same-sex sex), I neither approve or disapprove. His position does not require me to violate my biblical understanding of prohibited sexual conduct that is proscribed for believers in the church, which is what I follow. My objection would come if he tried to impose same-sex marriage on the church, which he has not done (and as a former Constitutional professor, he knows that would be unconstitutional). I have dual citizenship, as an American citizen and as a citizen of the kingdom of Jesus Christ. You may not agree with my views, and in the way I understand my responsibilities as a dual citizen, but I don’t think you can say that I am disregarding either Scripture or the Constitution.

      • mborofskyMark Borofsky

        Dan, appreciate your response, I am somewhat perplexed regarding your comment that “it is interesting that you are a Messianic Jew and cannot see where I am coming from with respect to Obama and his faith and his actions as president”. I am sorry but I fail to follow your logic with this. As a messianic Jew I do know that there have been many that profess a Christian belief and are woefully anything but. Not comparing Obama to Hitler, but Hitler was a Catholic and relied heavily on Martin Luther (Of Jews and Their Lies) as a partial basis for his “final solution”

        As one who is reformed I do not subscribe to replacement theology as you indicate and I dare say that is not relevant to our discussion. I do not think in anyway anyone that has posted or replied to your comments regarding Obama sees the government as extension of the church. The folks who post here I believe see that the church is the body of Christ and its believers. Conversely, neither I nor anyone that I have seen post here see the government as the a means to exact spiritual ends.

        The issue for me of your comment was not that you voted for Obama; that is your right and one, as my father who fought in WWII and myself a Vietnam Veteran made sure that you maintain just as we did for millions upon millions of other people. No, my issue was your comment absolute comment as to Obama’s supposed Christianity. If I apply your same logic and approach, I suppose I could argue that David Koresh, Jim Jones and other self-proclaimed Christians like them would fall into your idea of what a Christian is. I tried to explain to you that Jeremiah Wright coached Obama in how to speak christian, that would include how to profess Jesus Christ as your savior so that evangelicals would be “comfortable”. I stress again, saying you are a Christian, reading your bible and going to church is not a qualifier to ones Christianity. That he says this and lives his life contrary to the Word of God, that he says this and his ideology is diametrically opposed to the Word of God and that his actions do not comport to the Word of God would tell me that he more than likely is not a christian. He may have the head knowledge Dan, but the heart and the action says different.

        You said “Quite frankly, with respect to abortion and same-sex marriage (and I believe it significant that no directions about opposing or not opposing abortion or same-sex marriage as secular political issues are given in the Bible), ” WOW! Really? First of all. neither abortion nor same-sex marriage is a political issue, it is a moral issue. It is Obama that has made it a political issue. Your argument that because abortion (as a process or word is not mentioned in the bible is at best weak and at worst, border line heretical. What about the shedding of innocent blood? I can think of nothing more vile and repulsive than shedding of innocent blood and taking the life of a child in the womb. Murder is outlawed but is still happens, so I do not get your point. Abortion sir, is murder, plain and simple. As to Obama upholding the laws of the land, how convenient that you argue abortion being legal, but fail to recognize his failure to defend the DOM act, which is also the law of the land. You seem to be hit and miss on what is acceptable and not acceptable. You say you neither approve or disapprove as it relates to same-sex marriage, let your yes be yes and your no be no. Very weak argument Dan.

        As to imposing same-sex marriage on the church, if he is to be reelected, I can tell you that will be his next move. He is already imposing abortion pills on Christian institutions and Christian run companies (see Liberty University and Hobby Lobby). If he can push that, he can push same sex marriage. As to citizenship, not to be overly “spiritual” but this world is not my home, I am a sojourner passing through and this world is NOT my home. Finally, with all due respect i truly do believe you are not only disregarding scripture, but have a non-biblical world view that is dangerous to anyone who would listen. With that said, I stress again, I commend your right to vote for whom you wish, but you do not get a free pass in watering down the scriptures to fit your ideology.

    • David Thomas

      Go Irish, indeed! And may God be with them in their lawsuit against Obama over the HHS mandate. Better yet, may Romney win and make it moot!

      I, for one, really appreciate the exhortation of Rev. Daniel Jenky, Bishop of Peoria and former rector of Sacred Heart Basilica on the Notre Dame campus. Fr. Jenky basically says you cannot be a believer and vote for Obama. Gotta hand it to the man, he’s no eunuch 🙂

      David Thomas, ND class of ’86.

  • James Stanton

    I agree with Denny that Obama has the advantage in enough swing states to carry the election based on the polling trends. Even the national trends, see Rasmussen today, have been moving toward a tie or a point’s difference.

    The same people that think Romney will win a huge victory due to the polls being wrong probably had an issue with the polls showing Obama leading before the first debate. Then the polls showed Romney moving ahead after the debate and suddenly the polls were right again. If Romney wins it will be very close and due to winning the turnout battle in Ohio.

    I will not be voting for either Obama or Romney but will instead vote or write-in for a third candidate.

    I’ve read comments to this post that attack Obama’s theological liberalism while defending voting for Romney based on his current pro-life and pro-marriage stance. I think the intellectual consistency is suspect and I am disappointed at some of the personal attacks made towards Dan Bruce. The reality is that we are faced with evils and each one is left to his own to determine which is the least of the evils. I, for one, am done with the two-party system.

    Romney is a flawed candidate who has held different positions on the very issues he is being credit for compared to Obama. His election will validate Mormonism, which along with with Islam is the fastest growing religion in the United States, on a broad scale. Even so, in accordance with the ethos of our constitution I would vote for him if I trusted in his character and his governing philosophy. I do not.

    • David Thomas

      James, I unapologetically voted Romney, not because I buy the two party system as somehow superior or even desirable, but because it is the reality we are in.

      My stewardship, I believe, is to be salt and light. Frankly, politics stinks no matter who’s doing it. So I have long resolved to choose the least bad option according to biblical standards. The earliest Christians put a premium on life and purity, and so do I. (I have my thoughts on “fiscal responsibility,” but that is more debatable.) Furthermore, I have observed that electing a president is much, much more than electing a person or individual (i.e., whether Romney being a Mormon, or if Obama is really a Christian), it is electing an entiure /policy set/. This simple, observable fact renders largely moot what Romney may or may not have help personally in the past (similar to Reagan, or Bush Sr., or Democrats like Kusinich); the issue is the platform they run on and the people they are beholden to when they take office. Obama is beholden to Planned Parenthood and the radical LGBT lobby; Romney is not.

      Given these realities, and the fact that every kingdom not explicitly controlled by Christ will ultimately fall, I consider my vote a delaying action and little more. My King is Christ and Christ alone, and that frees me from the simplistic and false choice I believe Dan Bruce has fallen into. It’s all going to burn, and what we must do is retard the decay as long as possible using whatever resources available to us so that more might be saved. The rest is up to God.

  • Dan Phillips

    Denny, a possible explanation for the contemptibly absurd “arguments” you’re getting from “Christians” to the effect that all of BOTH the pro-abort AND the pro-life organizations are ALL WRONG about Romney may have a simple explanation.

    Four years ago, I was in a position to blog constantly about the presidential campaign and election. I had suddenly-appearing commenters, never there before, who professed to be Reformed Christians and all that, and who in various ways tried to rationalize how a Christian could vote for Obama. It was pathetic, just as your commenters to that effect are pathetic.

    And once the election was over, they disappeared.

    Lots of people hired by unethical presidential campaigns to do lots of things.

    • James Stanton

      Dan, do you believe that 100% of professed evangelicals will vote for Romney? Once they get in that voting booth anything can happen. There are indeed factors other than gay marriage and abortion that people are equally concerned about. There are indeed current positions and past decisions made by the Republican party that many consider just as morally indefensible.

      My dissatisfaction and personal conscience does not allow me to cast a vote for either of the 2 offered candidates in our rigged election system.

      The Democratic Party would not win very many elections if a good number of Christians did not vote for its politicians. The Republican Party would not win many federal elections without a strong number of functionally atheist economic conservatives.

      • Dan Phillips

        “Will”? Of course not. Professed evangelicals will do many foolish, destructive, and even downright sinful things today, tomorrow, and the day after, barring the Lord’s return. I have difficulty even understanding how this is a serious question.

        As it is foolish and destructive to help re-elect Barack Obama either actively by voting for him or passively by refusing to vote or by voting third-party, as I (and many others) have argued at length elsewhere. No valid excuse remains for any evangelical to do so.

        If somehow you found my previous remarks unclear, I hope this one leaves no room for unclarity.

  • Roger

    Denny, I have cast my vote for Romney because I cannot vote for a politician/party that stands on a platform that is unashamedly Pro-Abortion and Pro-gay marriage. Yet, I stand assured that whether Romney or Obama wins, God is still sovereign and in control.

  • Don Johnson

    What about Obama’s mandate on healthcare, that requires some believer to violate their religion, as they understand it?

  • Don Johnson

    Isa 44:24 Thus says the LORD, your Redeemer, who formed you from the womb: “I am the LORD, who made all things, who alone stretched out the heavens, who spread out the earth by myself,
    Isa 44:25 who frustrates the signs of liars and makes fools of diviners, who turns wise men back and makes their knowledge foolish,
    Isa 44:26 who confirms the word of his servant and fulfills the counsel of his messengers, who says of Jerusalem, ‘She shall be inhabited,’ and of the cities of Judah, ‘They shall be built, and I will raise up their ruins’;
    Isa 44:27 who says to the deep, ‘Be dry; I will dry up your rivers’;
    Isa 44:28 who says of Cyrus, ‘He is my shepherd, and he shall fulfill all my purpose’; saying of Jerusalem, ‘She shall be built,’ and of the temple, ‘Your foundation shall be laid.'”

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