Predicting the Electoral Map

As I said last week, I think my original prediction of an Obama victory still stands. Certainly the race has tightened in the last month, but the polls still give an edge to the President in the crucial battleground states. That being said, it’s difficult to be dogmatic because many of those very same polls are still within the margin of error. Nevertheless, the trends seem to indicate that President Obama will end up with more than the required 270 electoral votes. In my view, the most likely result from tomorrow’s election will give the President 290 electoral votes to Romney’s 248 (see map above).

Having said that, the polls could be wrong given that they are within the margin of error. Also, the large crowds showing up at Romney rallies over the weekend suggest a great deal of excitement on the GOP side. If that’s the case, I’m guessing that the most likely scenario for a Romney victory would result in 276 electoral votes for Romney and 262 for the President (see map below). This guess is based in part on some of the internal polling that the Romney people are looking at (for Romney Ohio +1, Iowa +2, NH +3). Again, I’m no political professional. I’m just an amateur who follows these things pretty closely. So take my prognostication with the requisite grain of salt. I guess we’ll find out tomorrow how close (or not close!) I was.

If you want to fill-in your own map and game the different scenarios, visit 270towin.com.


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