A lot of folks have asked me who I think will win the Iowa caucuses and the Republican nomination. My short answer about Iowa is that I don’t know. My long answer is that if the polling trends are correct, Trump will win. If there is a low overall turnout and high evangelical turnout, Cruz will squeak past Trump and win—especially if Rubio’s surge has indeed plateaued.
My short answer about the GOP nomination is that it depends. I expect Santorum and Huckabee to drop out of the race after Iowa. Other candidates will drop out after New Hampshire and South Carolina. The sooner the field winnows, the sooner we’ll know how much support will consolidate behind one of the current leaders. My hunch is that either Rubio or Cruz (or both) will emerge as the alternative to Trump, even if Trump wins the early contests. This contest could go all the way to the convention. But what do I know? I’m just a theologian.
Which is why we should turn to a professional at this point. Ross Douthat put out one final tweet-storm this afternoon with his predictions in advance of the Iowa caucuses tonight. Douthat is doubling-down on his prediction that Trump will not be the nominee, even if he wins tonight. I include his brief analysis below. I’ll be crossing my fingers that he’s right about Trump.
1/ Okay, time for a last tweetstorm before the voting starts.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
2/ Thru the summer-fall-winter of Trump, I've tried to strike a balance btw treating the Trump phenomenon w/the seriousness it deserves …
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
3/ And arguing, first in a boring-CW way and lately in a provocative-cum-stubborn way, that he's just *not* going to be the GOP nominee.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
4/ The current polling in Iowa basically bears out my reasoning. Trump's support is deep, intense — and narrow: https://t.co/JgMa8MRP7j
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
5/ As voting has neared, voters have focused in, and his rivals have started actually attacking him, his unfavorables have gone up.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
6/ So far up, in fact, that he's one of the least popular candidates in the field. If he was in a two-man race w/Cruz, he'd lose easily.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
7/ In a three-way race w/Cruz and Rubio, he'd probably lose narrowly. He's got 35 percent of the electorate in his corner, but that's it.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
8/ In NH, his numbers are a little better. But the last sprint to voting hasn't happened, + he'd still lose to a unified establishment vote.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
9/ So to believe Trump will be the nominee, you have to believe strongly in the power of momentum to carry him all the way.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
10/ That, and the persistent fracturing of the not-Trump, not-Cruz vote. You need it to stay fractured not only past NH, but past SC etc.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
11/ And you have to underrate Cruz, which a lot of people are doing right now bc of his lost Iowa lead. (And underrate Rubio, too.)
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
12/ For my part, though, I still look at Trump's best-case scenario as pushing it all the way to the convention, not winning.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
13/ So on this last day, I'm sticking with my not-Trump prediction, God help me. And I won't revise till after South Carolina.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
14/ As for who *will* win: I'd give Rubio, Cruz and convention madness (Mitt!) equal odds right now. So no confident predictions there.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
15/ And an Iowa prediction? Ummm … let's say Trump 30, Cruz 28, Rubio 19. BC I think other candidates will underperform their polls.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
16/ Now I have to go take care of my 2-day-old son, who's enjoying his brief time as a citizen of a republic rather than the Trump imperium.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
17/ (Check back for Iowa #hottakes later; a normal columnist's response will have to wait till late in the week.)
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) February 1, 2016
6 Comments
ian Shaw
“But what do I know? I’m just a theologian.”
Hey now, don’t sell yourself short!
I’m really hoping Trump does not win Iowa for republicans…
Though Douthat did make a nice funny with #16.
Ike Lentz
Here’s the real question: If Trump wins, and becomes the nominee, will you support him?
ian Shaw
I hate that question, because (again) it’s a ‘lesser of two evils’/catch-22 scenario.
Who’d be more damaging to the country- Trump or Clinton? (sorry Bernie, I know you’ve putting in the work).
buddyglass
Unless you live in a swing state the question’s somewhat moot. I live in a deeply red state. If it’s Trump vs. Clinton I may just write in whoever I would have preferred to be the nominee.
Curt Day
What I worry about regarding the 3 who will most likely win the Republican nomination is that all 3, that is Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, seem way to eager to acquire the power that comes with the position of POTUS. All of them, each in their own way, seem way too eager to use that power to show the world who’s boss. Such an attitude in the POTUS is very threatening and dangerous to the rest of the world.
Christiane Smith
I wish some of the Republican candidates had half of the class shown by Bernie Sanders. He may not be supported because of his social and economic views, and I understand that; but he is an honest man and has, in his own way, an upright outspoken integrity.
Unlike the Republican candidate that ‘opposes abortion’ and yet would have no problem carpet-bombing innocent civilians in a war zone . . . it’s that kind of hypocrisy that I wish conservative Christians would refuse to recognize as ‘evangelical’, which it isn’t.