I usually save my football posts for the weekend, but everybody’s been asking me what I think about the big game this Saturday. So I offer my humble prediction today about who will win the LSU-Alabama game.
It is no surprise to any of you that I will pulling for the LSU Tigers. I’m still not over that national championship game (I don’t think I’ll ever get over it), and I will be rooting for the Tigers to stick it to Saban and the Tide. Having said that, I’m going to offer you my honest analysis, not the Pollyannaish musings of a fan. Here goes.
LSU has two advantages that no other opponent of Alabama has had. First, LSU may be the only team in the country that can match-up with Alabama in terms of talent. Pound for pound, we’re just as deep as they are. Second, this will be a home game in Death Valley at night—a setting in which the Tigers almost always win. Having said that, these two advantages are mitigated by the fact that LSU has struggled at home this year against lesser teams (think USC and Towson). Also, LSU’s talent may be one step behind Alabama’s, especially at the quarterback position.
In order to win this game, LSU would have to do some things that it has been unable to do all year against teams that are far less capable than Alabama. LSU would have to play with no mistakes. No turnovers. No penalties. No short offensive drives. LSU’s defense has the ability to perform against a team like Alabama, but they cannot hold indefinitely if the offense doesn’t perform. LSU cannot rely on the running game alone but would have to have an efficient passing game as well. LSU has struggled throwing the ball all year, and I doubt that will change when they face the stingiest defense in the nation. Somehow LSU has edged all but one of their opponents until now with an effective running game, but that won’t fly against Alabama.
I hate to say it, but even though LSU matches-up pretty well with Alabama talent-wise, Alabama is a much better coached and disciplined team. They don’t make mistakes. LSU does, and that will be the difference. As much as I want to exact revenge on the Crimson Tide, it’s not going to happen this year. In fact, Alabama is much better than they were last year, and there’s not a team in the country that can touch them this year.
None of that is going to keep me from pulling for the upset. Geaux, Tigers!