The Los Angeles Times reports that we should find out this week whether or not the Supreme Court will rule on gay marriage. Earlier this year, a lower court overturned “Proposition 8,” California’s ban on gay marriage. Traditional marriage supporters have appealed that decision, and the Supreme Court must decide whether or not to hear their appeal.
If SCOTUS declines the appeal, then gay marriage will become the law of the land in California. If they take up the appeal, then it is very possible that they could rule on the issue in a way that has broad implications for the entire country. In short, this mean that gay marriage may very well be legal in every state of the union by this June. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
This outcome is by no means a slam dunk, but it is very much a possibility if SCOTUS decides to hear the case. It will depend on how certain justices decide to rule. Scalia, Thomas, and Alito are almost surely to vote against gay marriage. It’s possible that Chief Justice Roberts may join them, though that is not certain at this point.
If Roberts does hang tough with the conservatives, then it will all come down to Kennedy. Keep in mind that Justice Kennedy was the one who authored the Court’s two strongest gay rights rulings, including the 2003 decision that struck down Texas’ anti-sodomy laws. It seems then that there is a very real possibility that the majority would go in favor of gay marriage.
The first step in this process is the decision whether or not to hear the case. That is what we will find out this week. Stay tuned.