My Prediction about LSU vs. Alabama

I usually save my football posts for the weekend, but everybody’s been asking me what I think about the big game this Saturday. So I offer my humble prediction today about who will win the LSU-Alabama game.

It is no surprise to any of you that I will pulling for the LSU Tigers. I’m still not over that national championship game (I don’t think I’ll ever get over it), and I will be rooting for the Tigers to stick it to Saban and the Tide. Having said that, I’m going to offer you my honest analysis, not the Pollyannaish musings of a fan. Here goes.

LSU has two advantages that no other opponent of Alabama has had. First, LSU may be the only team in the country that can match-up with Alabama in terms of talent. Pound for pound, we’re just as deep as they are. Second, this will be a home game in Death Valley at night—a setting in which the Tigers almost always win. Having said that, these two advantages are mitigated by the fact that LSU has struggled at home this year against lesser teams (think USC and Towson). Also, LSU’s talent may be one step behind Alabama’s, especially at the quarterback position.

In order to win this game, LSU would have to do some things that it has been unable to do all year against teams that are far less capable than Alabama. LSU would have to play with no mistakes. No turnovers. No penalties. No short offensive drives. LSU’s defense has the ability to perform against a team like Alabama, but they cannot hold indefinitely if the offense doesn’t perform. LSU cannot rely on the running game alone but would have to have an efficient passing game as well. LSU has struggled throwing the ball all year, and I doubt that will change when they face the stingiest defense in the nation. Somehow LSU has edged all but one of their opponents until now with an effective running game, but that won’t fly against Alabama.

I hate to say it, but even though LSU matches-up pretty well with Alabama talent-wise, Alabama is a much better coached and disciplined team. They don’t make mistakes. LSU does, and that will be the difference. As much as I want to exact revenge on the Crimson Tide, it’s not going to happen this year. In fact, Alabama is much better than they were last year, and there’s not a team in the country that can touch them this year.

None of that is going to keep me from pulling for the upset. Geaux, Tigers!

19 Responses to My Prediction about LSU vs. Alabama

  1. Steve Hayes October 30, 2012 at 2:48 pm #

    LSU played Auburn in an away game. We also destroyed a good Washington team and beat a darn good South Carolina team at home. I can’t really argue with your analysis, but I also can’t pick Bama. That will never happen.

    Somehow… Some way… The Tigers pull this one out. Saturday night magic in Death Valle!!!!. Geaux Tigers!!!!

    • Will Barkley (@willbarkley) October 30, 2012 at 3:12 pm #

      Washington is a horrible team! Yes, they had some lucky wins, but they aren’t going anywhere. LSU has been indomitable in the past, but they have had a shaky season. The dense is not the same without mathieu.

  2. Will Barkley (@willbarkley) October 30, 2012 at 2:55 pm #

    While I am no Oregon fan, they will soundly run all over Alabama in the BCS title game. You heard it here first.

    • Denny Burk October 30, 2012 at 2:57 pm #

      I watched LSU put a thumping on Oregon last year, and I don’t believe you analysis for one minute!

  3. Mitch Maher October 30, 2012 at 3:12 pm #

    Hey Denny, my wife and I will be at the game! Geaux Tigers!!

  4. Will Barkley (@willbarkley) October 30, 2012 at 3:23 pm #

    The most exciting team from Louisiana has been ULM. I can’t get over how bad LSU plays, and yet pulls out the win. Full disclosure, I am a WSU (thats Washington State) fan, and a believer in the Pac-12 schools at large. I don’t know if anyone can match the speed of Oregon. And yes, I am tired of watching SEC teams always being considered for the national title games. They do provide the foil for the proud pac-12 schools though….*ha*

  5. Steve Martin October 30, 2012 at 3:28 pm #

    Alabama is a better team than last year. They will beat LSU (by 10).

    Oregon is a better team than last year. If they play Bama, it will be a very good game and either team could win.

    BTW, Oregon will destroy USC. (by 20, at least)

  6. Caroline D October 30, 2012 at 4:26 pm #

    What about forgiveness …haha. You will be spending eternity with a lot of Bama fans so you need to release your hatred for a team that beat your team soundly. Haha
    Roll Tide.

  7. Johnny October 30, 2012 at 4:28 pm #

    Stranger things have happen in death valley! But you are right, the deck is stack against us…BUT GOD!

  8. David Tuten October 30, 2012 at 4:37 pm #

    Those teams with all the Madden XBox numbers (see, Oregon) don’t seem to put up quite the same numbers against serious defenses (see, top SEC teams).

  9. Joe Dupree October 30, 2012 at 5:59 pm #

    Really? LSU destroyed Oregon last year. Alabama would do the same to Oregon this year. I want to see a Bama-Oregon championship to shut the naysayers up.

    • Brent Walker October 31, 2012 at 8:52 am #

      Won’t happen. Georgia will beat Bama in the SEC title game(As a dawg fan, I have to hold out hope even if it’s just wishful thinking).

  10. Joe Dupree October 30, 2012 at 6:00 pm #

    You are correct, David. Couldn’t agree more.

  11. Dave Miller October 30, 2012 at 6:12 pm #

    How can you expect your team to prosper when you don’t even know how to spell “Go?”

  12. Bill Kaufmann October 31, 2012 at 3:04 pm #

    Agree that the Tide will win…my prediction is by 17 as in 17 – 0. 🙂

    • Denny Burk October 31, 2012 at 4:11 pm #

      I think predicting the score is difficult. In their last two meetings, Alabama was only able to score 1 touchdown on LSU (zero touchdowns in the regular season and 1 touchdown in the championship game). If LSU’s defense plays well, it will all come down to field goals again.


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